September jobs report preview: Labor market likely softened as Fed hikes take effect

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September jobs report preview: Labor market likely softened as Fed hikes take effect

Alexandra Semenova · Reporter
Thu, October 6, 2022 at 4:38 PM · 4 min read

Job growth likely softened in September as a series of supersized interest rate hikes permeated the U.S. economy, but a softer non-farm payroll gain is still unlikely to deter policymakers from aggressive monetary action to fight inflation that remains at a decades-high.

The Labor Department is set to release its latest monthly jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Here are Wall Street's expectations for the report, according to Bloomberg data:

Non-farm payrolls: +260,000 expected vs. +315,000 in August

• Unemployment rate: 3.7% expected vs. 3.7% in August

• Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: +0.3% expected vs. +0.3% in August

• Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: +5.0% expected vs. +5.2% in August

If economist estimates are realized, the projected payroll gain would mark the lowest monthly increase since December 2020. Any cool-off in September employment data would be a welcome sign for Fed officials trying to tamp down an extraordinarily tight labor market that has placed upward pressure on wages and contributed to soaring prices.

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On Thursday, data from the Labor Department reflected a spike in the number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment insurance. Initial jobless claims rose sharply to 219,000 for the week ended Oct. 1 after sliding to a five-month low of 193,000.

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