September jobs report preview: Labor market likely softened as Fed hikes take effect

[progree]

1. Hmm, almost exactly on as far as nonfarm payroll jobs, but UR down becuz labor force down

Non-farm payrolls: +260,000 expected vs. +263,000 actual

But unemployment rate: expected 3.7%, actual 3.5%

Big reason for that: Labor Force declined by 57,000

Labor Force = Employed + Unemployed

Unemployment Rate = Unemployed / Labor Force

Employed went up by 204,000, While Unemployed went down by 261,000

The Unemployed are jobless who have looked for work sometime in the last 4 weeks. Since they recently looked for work, they are counted as part of the labor force.

Its not good news that the Labor Force went down by 57,000 in September.

It's not good news that the Labor Force went up only 47,000/month on average over the last 6 months (since March)

Also, the Household Survey's Employed has only grown only 478,000 in the last 6 months (that's an average of only 80,000/month), as this widening disparity with the nonfarm payroll jobs grows increasingly larger.