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bucolic_frolic

(47,365 posts)
3. Ray Dalio has some great vids on Youtube on long cycles of politics, markets, history.
Tue Jan 17, 2023, 08:35 PM
Jan 2023

The period of democracy lasted from, depending on which historian draws the charts, 1688 or 1776 through, roughly, the 1870s. The American and French revolutions were followed by European uprisings from about 1825 to the continent-wide Revolutions of 1848, which carried into smaller countries through the 1880s, such as Italy with Garibaldi. Then imperialists got their act together and we had wars followed by fascism through WWII. It is a fascinating subject. I took many a history course but all they did was describe events and facts, never patterns and a long cycle perspective.

As for the present market, this is the 6th major market crash/bear market in my lifetime, I think. I've studied the 1973-75, the '87 crash, and we all can't forget 2001, the Great Recession, the Covid Crash, and today's yet-to-be-named Inflationary Drop. Previous to that, the 1929 debacle, a 1950s mini-crash, 1963's tax related crash, and the curious period that I can't find much about, 1968-1972. This was also an era of inflation from the Vietnam War and Johnson's Guns and Butter economy. Corporate earnings dropped as people stopped spending, and the largest 50 safest companies, known as the Nifty-Fifty crashed. I think Revlon was among the hardest hit. But no one ever talks about that time period. I think the war eclipsed all else. It was bad though from an investing perspective. 1968-1982 was a net loser for stocks overall, though there were no index funds to measure at the time.

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