CPI preview: Inflation expected to have cooled further in May ahead of Fed decision

[progree]

3. Sadly, the CORE CPI (which is what the Fed most looks at) has been stuck for months

Last edited Tue Jun 13, 2023, 10:56 PM - Edit history (1)

though nowadays they look at things like "supercore service inflation" and core ex shelter and who knows what other series.

Edited to add: Same graph as above, but the CPI and the CORE CPI shown on separate graphs for less clutter and more clarity:



They don't give a rat's ass about yoy (12 month) CPI for projecting future inflation because (a) it has volatile energy and food prices that bounce up and down month-to-month (b) data several months ago is ancient data when assessing CURRENT or RECENT inflation.

LBN thread on CPI: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143087481

Various series:

BLS CPI press release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth

For all BLS timeseries data, one can see the index values and other periods like rolling 3 month, rolling 6 month, rolling 12 months by clicking "More Formatting Options" on the upper right and then on the page that shows up, check the various checkboxes

REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS of production and non-supervisory workers https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032 ,
. . . private workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013

CPI excluding shelter - https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L2
. . . FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0L2
. . . Table 3 has CPI ex shelter, as well as Core ex shelter https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t03.htm

Rent (SA) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SEHA
Fred: (SA) Rent of Primary Residence in U.S. City Average https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA
(NSA) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA

SA = Seasonally Adjusted, NSA = Not Seasonally Adjusted