July jobs report expected to show further cooling in labor market

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Yahoo Finance
July jobs report expected to show further cooling in labor market

Josh Schafer • Reporter
Thu, Aug 1, 2024, 3:02 PM EDT • 4 min read

The July jobs report is expected to serve as the latest piece of economic data indicating that the US labor market is slowing down as the Fed inches toward interest rate cuts. ... The monthly report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, slated for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, is expected to show nonfarm payrolls rose by 175,000 in July while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

In June, the US economy added 206,000 jobs while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%. Here are the key numbers Wall Street will be looking at compared to the previous month, according to data from Bloomberg:

• Nonfarm payrolls: +175,000 vs. +206,000

• Unemployment rate: 4.1% vs. 4.1% previously

• Average hourly earnings, month over month: +0.3% vs. +0.3% previously

• Average hourly earnings, year over year: +3.7% vs. +3.9% previously

• Average weekly hours worked: 34.3 vs. 34.3 previously

The impact of Hurricane Beryl will be a particular focus on Friday. The economics team at Goldman Sachs estimates the hurricane will diminish July's overall nonfarm payroll additions by about 15,000. ... Economists as well as Fed chair Jerome Powell have said they are no longer worried a red hot job market is driving a pickup in the pace of price increases.

"Momentum in the labor market has cooled over the second quarter and subsequently minimized concerns that it might be adding to upward pressure on inflation," Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House wrote in a note on Tuesday. ... The key question in Friday's report — and throughout the rest of 2024 — remains whether slowing monthly job growth reflects a normalization in the labor market or the early signs of a broader economic slowdown.

{snip}