Tornadoes shifting east in the U.S., study finds, putting more people at risk

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Tornadoes shifting east in the U.S., study finds, putting more people at risk
The apparent shift from the Plains to the South has perplexed researchers, who aren’t sure if the change is permanent and if climate change is playing a role.

By Matthew Cappucci
June 9, 2024 at 10:57 a.m. EDT


A tornado south of Midland, Tex., on May 30. (Matthew Cappucci/MyRadar)

Fifty years ago, tornadoes in the United States were most common over the Great Plains. A bull’s eye of sorts covered parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska. The term “Tornado Alley” entered the American lexicon.

But in the years since, that hot spot of tornadoes has shifted markedly east. Researchers have pointed to parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley as being the modern-day Tornado Alley.

A study published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology in April confirms the legitimacy of this shift and highlights a change in when tornadoes are likely to occur. ... The results spell problems for residents of the Midwest and Southeast, where a higher population density and a greater prevalence of mobile homes lead to a more serious vulnerability to tornadoes.

Experts still aren’t sure exactly why tornado activity has moved — and whether it’s associated with long-term atmospheric-ocean cycles, human-caused climate change or the result of unknown processes.

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Citation for study maps: Coleman, T. A., R.L. Thompson, and G.S. Forbes, 2024: A Comprehensive Analysis of the Spatial and Seasonal Shifts in Tornado Activity in the United States. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-23-0143.1, in press.

By Matthew Cappucci
Matthew Cappucci is a meteorologist for Capital Weather Gang. He earned a B.A. in atmospheric sciences from Harvard University in 2019, and has contributed to The Washington Post since he was 18. He is an avid storm chaser and adventurer, and covers all types of weather, climate science, and astronomy. Twitter https://twitter.com/MatthewCappucci