Intelligence Agencies Produced Extensive Reports on Afghanistan, but All Failed to Predict Collapse

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WSJ NEWS EXCLUSIVE | WORLD

Four U.S. Intelligence Agencies Produced Extensive Reports on Afghanistan, but All Failed to Predict Kabul’s Rapid Collapse

Summaries of intelligence reports show how agencies diverged over the strength of the Afghan government and military

In the Taliban’s Afghanistan, Signs of a Return to Hard-Line Islamic Rule

By Vivian Salama and Warren P. Strobel
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Oct. 28, 2021 6:00 am ET

WASHINGTON—Leading U.S. intelligence agencies failed to predict the rapid Taliban takeover of Afghanistan prior to the final withdrawal of American troops and instead offered scattershot assessments of the staying power of the Afghan military and government, a review of wide-ranging summaries of classified material by The Wall Street Journal shows.

The nearly two dozen intelligence assessments from four different agencies haven’t been previously reported. The assessments charted Taliban advances from spring 2020 through this July, forecasting that the group would continue to gain ground and that the U.S.-backed government in Kabul was unlikely to survive absent U.S. support.

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