Intelligence Agencies Produced Extensive Reports on Afghanistan, but All Failed to Predict Collapse

[harumph]

1. No... not plausible.

I'm sure at least some estimates foretold collapse - and equally sure that said estimates
were sent up the command chain. I suspect it was an open secret
that once events were set in motion - it would all collapse quickly.
IOW, the biggest political problems would entail (IF) said warnings
were officially issued and (IF) they were seen to be ignored.
This way all the important players can claim "Who knew?" Playing dumb - what our
"leaders" do well.