Stop counting warships. China's special-operations forces are Taiwan's real problem.

[DarthDem]

1. Disagree

There will be no attack on Taiwan for at least three reasons.

1. The PRC would instantly become an international pariah. Massive economic sanctions would be imposed immediately. In addition, naturally their actions would destabilize markets even without any sanctions. This is utterly counterproductive for the PRC.

2. Half of Taiwan (the Eastern half, I believe) is a Vietnam-like jungle environment. The PRC could be bogged down there for years upon years. And that's if they even get to the island, which I'm not even covering here.

3. Invading is one thing - and there are many reasons to think an invasion would be difficult or impossible, despite the much-ballyhooed Chinese military capability. HOLDING the territory is another. So they're going to occupy Taipei and the rest of the urban areas for . . . how long? Forever? While installing a puppet government? Without any popular uprisings or international resistance?

It's not going to happen.