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Memo to Democrats: Look to the Southwest and Southeast, Not Midwest [View all]
Hidden in the wreckage of the election there may be some good news. But I must admit I'm skeptical. I'm not sure if the places we improved our margins are specific to 2016 or if they indicate a longer-term trend. Still, an interesting perspective...
A common lesson drawn from this November’s presidential elections is that to win the presidency, the Democratic Party has to start paying much closer attention to white working-class voters in the Midwest states who delivered the Electoral College majority to Republican Donald J. Trump.
Three weeks after election day, and the once-renowned “blue wall” of Democratic states in the Midwest is in shambles — Trump is the first Republican nominee since the 1980s to win either Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, and not since Ronald Reagan’s reelection campaign has a Republican won all three.
But Trump’s Midwestern victories shouldn’t have shocked anyone. Democrats have been struggling there for a generation. Wisconsin has elected Democrats in just two of their last eight gubernatorial elections, and the GOP has held a state assembly majority for 19 of the last 21 years. In Michigan, Republicans have won five of the last seven gubernatorial races, and have held an uninterrupted state senate majority for more than 30 years. Even in Minnesota, which Clinton won, Democrats have won just two of the last seven gubernatorial elections.
The Midwest isn’t safe Democratic territory, but truth be told, the hand-wringing about the Democrats’ woes misses a larger truth. Lost in much of the analyses this year is just how significantly the Trump-Pence ticket underperformed among many traditionally Republican-leaning groups and in some GOP-dominant areas — and of what this possibly portends in future elections. Voting trends suggest a possible realigning of the electorate at work that can bring back the big prize to the Democrats despite their increasingly difficult Electoral College status.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/democrats-electoral-map-midwest-southwest-southeast-demographics-214489
Three weeks after election day, and the once-renowned “blue wall” of Democratic states in the Midwest is in shambles — Trump is the first Republican nominee since the 1980s to win either Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, and not since Ronald Reagan’s reelection campaign has a Republican won all three.
But Trump’s Midwestern victories shouldn’t have shocked anyone. Democrats have been struggling there for a generation. Wisconsin has elected Democrats in just two of their last eight gubernatorial elections, and the GOP has held a state assembly majority for 19 of the last 21 years. In Michigan, Republicans have won five of the last seven gubernatorial races, and have held an uninterrupted state senate majority for more than 30 years. Even in Minnesota, which Clinton won, Democrats have won just two of the last seven gubernatorial elections.
The Midwest isn’t safe Democratic territory, but truth be told, the hand-wringing about the Democrats’ woes misses a larger truth. Lost in much of the analyses this year is just how significantly the Trump-Pence ticket underperformed among many traditionally Republican-leaning groups and in some GOP-dominant areas — and of what this possibly portends in future elections. Voting trends suggest a possible realigning of the electorate at work that can bring back the big prize to the Democrats despite their increasingly difficult Electoral College status.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/democrats-electoral-map-midwest-southwest-southeast-demographics-214489
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