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2016 Postmortem

Land Shark

(6,348 posts)

16. You should be confused

Reply to jmg257 (Reply #12)

Fri Dec 2, 2016, 11:10 PM

Dec 2016

Edison has some history of controversy in that they have argued that exit polls are not "intended" to.prove fraud therefore can't be used as such. But the US government regularly advises other countries to use exit polls this way.

And besides, if a.criminal doesn't intend to leave fingerprint evidence of a crime by grabbing a glass with their hand, does that mean the fingerprint can not be used as evidence of a crime?

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Chances of Wisconsin Presidential Vote Results shown to be 1 in 850, and Worse for Other States [View all] Coyotl Dec 2016 OP

What exit polls? The ones from CNN seem spot on. jmg257 Dec 2016 #1

Those are exit polls adjusted to match reported results (except votes counted after the election) Land Shark Dec 2016 #3

Sheesh - thanks. How/why do they do that??? Where are the raw ones? jmg257 Dec 2016 #4

People screen capture them before adjusted. You can find election data here Land Shark Dec 2016 #8

Thanks - here is some onfo from Edison research who apparently does the actuall polling. jmg257 Dec 2016 #12

You should be confused Land Shark Dec 2016 #16

Exit polls in other countries Igel Dec 2016 #28

So you're thinking exit pollsters are pretty stupid then Land Shark Dec 2016 #29

Where are the raw ones? That question has been hovering in the air since at least 2000. tandem5 Dec 2016 #9

Election data and analysis without opinion published at tdmsresearch.com Land Shark Dec 2016 #13

the exit polls you are looking at have been "corrected" to correlate with the "results" imaginary girl Dec 2016 #5

Yes I have seen that too...Who/why do they do that? Weird. nt jmg257 Dec 2016 #6

A gap between exit polls and Election results beyond margin of error means one of them is wrong Land Shark Dec 2016 #10

The kicker is that since 2000 the exits are always red-shifted (election results better for Rs) Land Shark Dec 2016 #11

That is just crazy - what's the point then? They just want to get an idea of trends? Not jmg257 Dec 2016 #14

They want to create the fodder for those who read political tea leaves Land Shark Dec 2016 #17

I don't know (n/t) imaginary girl Dec 2016 #25

Source: CNN.com. Compiled by Jonathan D. Simon election night, unadjusted numbers. Coyotl Dec 2016 #22

I do not expect a different outcome. gordianot Dec 2016 #2

People protect themselves from disappointment. Nobody knows what the ballots really say Land Shark Dec 2016 #7

A few factors militate against successful recounts, like.... Land Shark Dec 2016 #15

The Cuyahoga Election Board chairman was the head of the Ohio Republican Party in 2004. Coyotl Dec 2016 #20

Garbage in-garbage out hueymahl Dec 2016 #18

Was a similar anylysis done for Pa, Mi, Fla., and N.C.? triron Dec 2016 #19

Yes, same link. Coyotl Dec 2016 #21

I found Pa and N. C. triron Dec 2016 #23

We have the numbers of respondents for each state and the formula for MoE here: Coyotl Dec 2016 #30

I did a very rough back-of-the-envelope triron Dec 2016 #24

Indeed. Each exit poll is a separate poll. What are the odds they all will shift red? Coyotl Dec 2016 #26

Zero states split their tickets for president and Senate for the first time in American history Coyotl Dec 2016 #27

knr triron Dec 2016 #31