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2016 Postmortem

triron

(22,240 posts)

24. I did a very rough back-of-the-envelope

Reply to Coyotl (Original post)

Sat Dec 3, 2016, 12:21 AM

Dec 2016

calculation on the chance of the deviation toward Trump for all the exit poll vs actual vote results and assuming only a binary value (toward Trump or toward Clinton) and the probability was less than 1 in 13000 that the vote turned out as lopsided as it did.

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Chances of Wisconsin Presidential Vote Results shown to be 1 in 850, and Worse for Other States [View all] Coyotl Dec 2016 OP

What exit polls? The ones from CNN seem spot on. jmg257 Dec 2016 #1

Those are exit polls adjusted to match reported results (except votes counted after the election) Land Shark Dec 2016 #3

Sheesh - thanks. How/why do they do that??? Where are the raw ones? jmg257 Dec 2016 #4

People screen capture them before adjusted. You can find election data here Land Shark Dec 2016 #8

Thanks - here is some onfo from Edison research who apparently does the actuall polling. jmg257 Dec 2016 #12

You should be confused Land Shark Dec 2016 #16

Exit polls in other countries Igel Dec 2016 #28

So you're thinking exit pollsters are pretty stupid then Land Shark Dec 2016 #29

Where are the raw ones? That question has been hovering in the air since at least 2000. tandem5 Dec 2016 #9

Election data and analysis without opinion published at tdmsresearch.com Land Shark Dec 2016 #13

the exit polls you are looking at have been "corrected" to correlate with the "results" imaginary girl Dec 2016 #5

Yes I have seen that too...Who/why do they do that? Weird. nt jmg257 Dec 2016 #6

A gap between exit polls and Election results beyond margin of error means one of them is wrong Land Shark Dec 2016 #10

The kicker is that since 2000 the exits are always red-shifted (election results better for Rs) Land Shark Dec 2016 #11

That is just crazy - what's the point then? They just want to get an idea of trends? Not jmg257 Dec 2016 #14

They want to create the fodder for those who read political tea leaves Land Shark Dec 2016 #17

I don't know (n/t) imaginary girl Dec 2016 #25

Source: CNN.com. Compiled by Jonathan D. Simon election night, unadjusted numbers. Coyotl Dec 2016 #22

I do not expect a different outcome. gordianot Dec 2016 #2

People protect themselves from disappointment. Nobody knows what the ballots really say Land Shark Dec 2016 #7

A few factors militate against successful recounts, like.... Land Shark Dec 2016 #15

The Cuyahoga Election Board chairman was the head of the Ohio Republican Party in 2004. Coyotl Dec 2016 #20

Garbage in-garbage out hueymahl Dec 2016 #18

Was a similar anylysis done for Pa, Mi, Fla., and N.C.? triron Dec 2016 #19

Yes, same link. Coyotl Dec 2016 #21

I found Pa and N. C. triron Dec 2016 #23

We have the numbers of respondents for each state and the formula for MoE here: Coyotl Dec 2016 #30

I did a very rough back-of-the-envelope triron Dec 2016 #24

Indeed. Each exit poll is a separate poll. What are the odds they all will shift red? Coyotl Dec 2016 #26

Zero states split their tickets for president and Senate for the first time in American history Coyotl Dec 2016 #27

knr triron Dec 2016 #31