I think a better way to build a more winning coalition is to expand our base

[el_bryanto]

40. The question is why people failed to vote for Clinton in the face of Trump

So there are three types of factors that lead to Clinton's loss of the electoral college.
1. Factors that we should not adjust our strategy to account for
2. Factors that were part of the unique make up of this years election, and thus most likely not going to be an issue in the next election.
3. Factors that we can and should adjust for.


Factors that we should not try to adjust for

1. Racism and anti-immigrant feeling were obviously factors.

2. Misogyny and sxism likewise probably played an role in swaying some voters.

Factors unique to the Hillary Clinton electoral run.

1. While African Americans and Millenials voted for Clinton, they did not do so in the same numbers as they had supported Obama. This might point to Obama being a unique candidate.

2. There were lingering trust issues related to Hillary Clinton. Most of those issues were nonsense drummed up by the right wing over the years over the year, but they doubtless played a roll.

a. Special note should be made of James Comeys decision to reopen the inquiry into her private e-mails in the last few days of the campaign - a very dirty trick and really nasty.

3. Attacks on Trump often pointed to his unfitness for the office; which he was. But the fact that he reach the national stage as he did showed that people weren’t as bothered by his blowhard racism as they should have been; blowhard racism is nothing new unfortunately.

Factors that could be problems in the future and that we might want to for adjust

1. While the economy might have actually been better after 8 years of Obama; people did not feel it was better. From Dan Roberts at the Guardian "Unfortunately for Clinton, many Americans simply did not feel as positive. Stagnant wage levels and soaring inequality were symptoms of the malaise felt by many voters."

a. Roberts also argues that Clinton failed to respond on the trade issue; and when she did respond her responses weren't convincing. I think that he overstates the case, but included it anyway.

b. One other distinction; it appears that Hillary won on the economic issues, but she didn’t win be enough to overcome other issues. People who voted for her often voted on the economy, but the economic issue did not pull enough in to overcome Trump, and this argument may have been more meaningful for people who feel like the economy has been doing well.

c. This suggests to me that bolder changes rather than incremental change might be more effective going forward.

2. Clinton did not do as well with the Blue Collar workers as she might have. From an article by Molly Ball at the Atlantic, "As Alec MacGillis reported, many blue-collar men voted for Barack Obama against John McCain and Mitt Romney because they thought he better related to their struggles. They did not think the same of Clinton"

3. Hillary Clintons had a large number of generally sound policy prescriptions; but with so many of them, no one message sprang out as being definitive. This left her main selling point as herself; which was compelling to many people and unconvincing to others.

This not an exhaustive list; and I have little illusions about how it will be received - but thank you for the opportunity to review this issue.

Bryant