U.S. 2016 Unadjusted Exit Poll Discrepancies Fit Political, not Statistical, Patterns

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Last edited Fri Dec 9, 2016, 06:49 PM - Edit history (2)

U.S. 2016 Unadjusted Exit Poll Discrepancies Fit Political, not Statistical, Patterns
By Ron Baiman Ph.D., Chicago Political Economy Group and Benedictine University

1) Introduction
As I write this in late November 2016 press reports indicate that Wisconsin has agreed to conduct recounts based on petitions filed by the Stein Green Party, and De La Fuente independent, Presidential campaigns, and the Stein campaign has raised almost $5.7 million for this effort and for additional recounts in Michigan and Pennsylvania. If voting irregularities are discovered in these three states sufficient to overturn Trump’s exceeding small victory margins (Michigan, 27,200 in Wisconsin, and 68,000 in Pennsylvania), Clinton who has an over 2 million popular vote lead over Trump, will win 276 electoral college votes and become the next President of the U.S. Already three Wisconsin precincts have been found to have given Trump more votes than he received. As will be shown below this is consistent with 2016 analysis that shows a pattern of highly significant unexplained increases in Trump’s state vote counts relative to unadjusted exit polls in battleground and deep red states. Politically, but not statistically, consistent patterns of UEP discrepancy have also been apparent in earlier U.S. elections.
After a short introduction (Section 1) this paper will include an analysis of Presidential UEPs (Section 2), Senate Race UEPs (Section 3), and a short Conclusion (Section 4). Figures illustrating the analysis, provided courtesy of Greg Kilcup and Peter Peckarsky, will be presented for: Clinton in PA (Figure 3, p. 8), Trump in WI (Figure 5, p. 11), Trump in NC (Figure 6, p. 12), Trump in FL (Figure 7, p. 13), and Dem Senate Candidates: Kander in MO (Figure 11, p. 17), Feingold in WI (Figure 12, p. 18), and McGinty in PA (Figure 13, p. 19).
a) Unadjusted Exit Polls
If you google U.S. Presidential Election exit polls you will find multiple reports and analysis that, unlike pre-election “polls,” purport to provide analysis of the demographics and voting preferences of actual voters. However it is important to understand that these “exit polls” are adjusted versions of actual exit poll data that approximate real exit polls only to the extent that official vote counts are accurate and that the adjustments made are good approximations of what would have resulted from unadjusted exit polls that roughly matched the official vote count without adjustment. None of this is “conspiracy theory” but rather has been repeatedly confirmed by executives of the polling company Edison Research that conducts the exit polls for the mainstream media consortium in the U.S. For example ...........

U.S. 2016 Unadjusted Exit Poll Discrepancies Fit Chronic Republican Vote-Count Rigging, not Statistical, Patterns
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