2016 Postmortem

jmg257

(11,996 posts)

3. Still don't get this - at 8pm Nov 8 in PA, there were 2613 respondents, and HRC is up.

Tue Dec 6, 2016, 02:29 PM

Dec 2016

At 3:35pm Nov 9th, with 2935 respondents, trump is up 1%.

So they made up 320 respondents in order to change the results??

Is "adjusting" the polls actually making up responses??

““We will know shortly after the polls close,” Lenski said. “We’ll have individual precinct results from all
the locations where we conducted interviews, so we’ll know how much understatement or
overstatement for the candidates we have. Our calls are based on all the information we have at the
time – exit polls, returns from sample precincts and county results from AP – and we may re-weight the
exit poll results later in the evening to match the vote estimates by geographic region.”

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U.S. 2016 Unadjusted Exit Poll Discrepancies Fit Political, not Statistical, Patterns [View all] Coyotl Dec 2016 OP

Bookmarking! Thanks! Madam45for2923 Dec 2016 #1

Bookmarking underpants Dec 2016 #2

Still don't get this - at 8pm Nov 8 in PA, there were 2613 respondents, and HRC is up. jmg257 Dec 2016 #3

I wish I could understand this stuff. Pacifist Patriot Dec 2016 #4

he's showing a probability dome Takket Dec 2016 #10

You lost me at "probability dome" Pacifist Patriot Dec 2016 #14

good analogy triron Dec 2016 #15

Are those states falling outside of confidence level Voter Suppression states? tia uponit7771 Dec 2016 #19

That hardly matters since the exit polls survey only voters. Coyotl Dec 2016 #23

"This means that if the election were held 100 times" should be if the poll were conducted 100x Coyotl Dec 2016 #22

Looks like presidency + 2 or 3 senate seats stolen. triron Dec 2016 #5

Yes! This! Madam45for2923 Dec 2016 #13

Exactly, just enough to alter the balance of power, and in just the right places too. Coyotl Dec 2016 #24

knr triron Dec 2016 #6

KnR! Madam45for2923 Dec 2016 #7

K & R Coyotl Dec 2016 #8

why are only 28 states shown in figure 1? Takket Dec 2016 #9

I believe that is all the states triron Dec 2016 #11

That's how many unadjusted exit polls were shown election night Coyotl Dec 2016 #17

The evidence that might show up would probably be in the voting machines triron Dec 2016 #12

Enough of the circular firing squad flamingdem Dec 2016 #16

+1, Comey, Voter suppression, Russia... uponit7771 Dec 2016 #20

you got it right triron Dec 2016 #21

knr triron Dec 2016 #18

Edit: "... Unadjusted Exit Poll Discrepancies Fit Chronic Republican Vote-Count Rigging ..." Coyotl Dec 2016 #25

knr triron Dec 2016 #27

"unexplained increases" Republican chicanery against America Achilleaze Dec 2016 #26