2016 Postmortem

TwilightZone

(28,834 posts)

69. Is there data to support that?

Wed Dec 7, 2016, 07:14 PM

Dec 2016

From what I've seen, we lost WI, MI, PA, because numbers in critical demographic groups were down, not because people switched from D to R.

One analysis, from Slate: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/12/the_myth_of_the_rust_belt_revolt.html

Their assertion is that Trump didn't flip votes - some of the Obama voters just didn't show up. Their numbers seem to largely back that up.

If that's the case, targeting Trump voters en masse won't help, at least not in those particular instances. We would instead need to improve turnout in the groups that reliably vote D, which, frankly, I think is a better approach anyway.

Obviously, we target everyone we can, but I'm not sure the "Obama voters flipped to Trump in significant numbers" assertion can be substantiated.

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Ezra Klein: Democrats don't need to convert Trump supporters [View all] gollygee Dec 2016 OP

It's the new Progressive era, Ezra. They love Trump. He's against the TPP. leftofcool Dec 2016 #1

So is Hillary. Last I heard. truebluegreen Dec 2016 #22

"As it's currently written" 90-percent Dec 2016 #38

Yep. That was a dodge that fooled no one. truebluegreen Dec 2016 #47

You and 90 percent wrapped that up. NEXT!! Eleanors38 Dec 2016 #48

It's the New "Populist" Era Martin Eden Dec 2016 #66

+1 quakerboy Dec 2016 #79

We just need to get Democrats to vote SHRED Dec 2016 #2

We need to get non-voters to vote, too. n/t Orsino Dec 2016 #31

why, they have to vote on broken voting machines that don't record their vote after standing in line putitinD Dec 2016 #54

That is effing outrageous. Missn-Hitch Dec 2016 #70

I like to vote in person, I don't trust the absentee system, they have been known to change votes, putitinD Dec 2016 #78

What do we do about Democrats who can't vote because if required photo id's? KittyWampus Dec 2016 #52

Schedule transportation to nearest DMV and get photo ID. Missn-Hitch Dec 2016 #71

Forget Motor Voter, try Motor State ID forjusticethunders Dec 2016 #81

Not only no need.....really, no possibility NRaleighLiberal Dec 2016 #3

Agreed. Turnout is more important. TwilightZone Dec 2016 #4

You can't get through to ANY of them. duffyduff Dec 2016 #20

Where's this "crushing Clinton"? forgotmylogin Dec 2016 #5

Read the rest of the sentence gollygee Dec 2016 #6

Run a relatable, scandal-free talented fresh face geek tragedy Dec 2016 #7

Yes. It's not that complicated, though I don't know why it always seems that way Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #39

They had help. Comey, the news media, the 2013 Supreme Court ruling against the voting rights act, still_one Dec 2016 #8

yeah, that's the part they got that we didnt. mopinko Dec 2016 #11

Who cares about the popular vote? CrispyQ Dec 2016 #27

you are damned right we are f**ked. Every Democrat running for Senate in a swing still_one Dec 2016 #44

The GOP will act fast & bold. CrispyQ Dec 2016 #53

You are right to be frightened. What we are depending on is a few republicans in the Senate who still_one Dec 2016 #59

No doubt, as I have written many times-- the media killed the Dems more than any other factor Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #40

Everything? Twitter, too? Eleanors38 Dec 2016 #49

yeah, which tweets get good play and which dont. mopinko Dec 2016 #51

Heh. Tens of millions read tRump's twits; the media must wait to pick over 'em. Eleanors38 Dec 2016 #58

You touched on the crux: What institution gives legitimacy? Eleanors38 Dec 2016 #80

Why is voting for a racist, piece-of-shit pig... yallerdawg Dec 2016 #9

Democrats don't have to radically alter anything... Drunken Irishman Dec 2016 #10

Democrats don't do well with boring candidates NewJeffCT Dec 2016 #12

You've got something there. mountain grammy Dec 2016 #16

I agree with you... Blanks Dec 2016 #30

Yes Al Gore and Hillary Clinton won the popular vote NewJeffCT Dec 2016 #33

I liked Gore... Blanks Dec 2016 #60

Big reason I think Biden woulda cleaned his clock. Drunken Irishman Dec 2016 #68

Elizabeth Warren or Joe Biden would have won in a landslide. lark Dec 2016 #36

Yup. Hillary was always going to be a tough candidate to run. Drunken Irishman Dec 2016 #67

hillary's problem was that she only had one problem mopinko Dec 2016 #13

The only problem she had was she was a woman. duffyduff Dec 2016 #19

I don't think it was "email..." She most likely lost for the same rason she lost in '08. Eleanors38 Dec 2016 #50

Her only problem was that she was a Clinton. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #74

Au Contraire McKim Dec 2016 #21

How could she have dressed in a more low key way? gollygee Dec 2016 #23

are you joking? you think her clothes mattered? mopinko Dec 2016 #77

Klein's argument makes no sense and he knows it Renew Deal Dec 2016 #14

Nope. You can't do anything to reason with these people. duffyduff Dec 2016 #18

Many of "these people" voted for Obama Renew Deal Dec 2016 #41

Is there data to support that? TwilightZone Dec 2016 #69

not many JI7 Dec 2016 #82

We can't ignore ALL the people who voted for drumpf. lark Dec 2016 #37

At some point we have to convince people we are the better way Renew Deal Dec 2016 #43

Good points. More than a few DUers have been accused of racism, sexism, etc. Eleanors38 Dec 2016 #55

There were families that proudly voted against a Clinton and then went out for ice cream. Spitfire of ATJ Dec 2016 #15

The Democratic Party doesn't need racists and sexists. duffyduff Dec 2016 #17

Half that don't vote: You have scant respect for prospecting the militantly apathetic. Eleanors38 Dec 2016 #56

Let's face facts DeminPennswoods Dec 2016 #24

Her popularity was sky high 3 or 4 years ago. Then the McCarthyism began. StevieM Dec 2016 #42

I agree OnionPatch Dec 2016 #63

Do not recruit. Never recruit. ancianita Dec 2016 #25

Oh, no! That is work and humility. You sweat. Get B.O. Drink cheap beer at 11 p.m. Eleanors38 Dec 2016 #57

No, we're going to recruit. TwilightZone Dec 2016 #72

Think maybe Comey had anything to do with her defeat? DK504 Dec 2016 #26

There are more non-voters likely to be convinced than Trump voters..... vi5 Dec 2016 #28

the majority of clinton unpopularity was a direct result of certainot Dec 2016 #29

Brilliant Post McKim Dec 2016 #75

thanks. i think it comes down to some organization that can do this certainot Dec 2016 #76

Have you watched an interview with an avid Trump supporter? perdita9 Dec 2016 #32

Anyone who can believe gollygee Dec 2016 #34

He's not talking about the avid Trump supporter. Squinch Dec 2016 #35

The problem is that whoever the Democrats nominate will turn out to be a terrible human being StevieM Dec 2016 #45

It was a battle of candidates with high unfavorables andym Dec 2016 #46

This is all fine and well - except Rs control by large margins every branch of government Cosmocat Dec 2016 #61

He was able to perpetrate a fraud with assistance from a hostile foreign government LaydeeBug Dec 2016 #62

I can't help feeling bucolic_frolic Dec 2016 #64

Ezra's the one who said "We are the Majority.. start acting like it" Cha Dec 2016 #65

We should not ignore standingtall Dec 2016 #73