2016 Postmortem
Showing Original Post only (View all)Key factors that led to Trump winning, according to my calculations: [View all]
Last edited Tue Dec 13, 2016, 07:58 AM - Edit history (1)
30% -- the media's coverage of the campaign, and idiotic focus on Hillary's emails and neglect of issues of substance (e.g. climate change, jobs plans, healthcare). This part includes Comey's late breaking announcement on her emails (October surprise).
20% -- related to hacking by Russia, wikileaks, creating chaos and confusion about the Democrats
20% -- the historical situation of conservatives pissed off after 8 years of Obama and not wanting 4 more years of a "liberal" president (threats of gun control, keeping abortion legal, gay marriage, etc)
10% -- Trump's ability to game media coverage, lie effortlessly and demagogue like a champion
10% -- voter suppression efforts by the GOP
10%-- missteps by Hillary's campaign and her flaws as a candidate
The MAIN POINT is that in a close election, as this last one was, any of these factors could tip it one way or the other. Russian hacking definitely played a role.