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DFW

(57,011 posts)
7. Even Le Pen and Wilders would be considered moderates in today's Republican Party
Sat Dec 17, 2016, 05:35 AM
Dec 2016

It's people like Orban in Hungary that should be giving you the willies, like he does to us here in Europe.

France is up in the air at the moment. Hollande breathed new life into his party by realizing that with the mess he made, he stood zero chance of re-election, and took himself out of the running. By making the sensible Valls front-runner, the PS got a new lease on life, though doubtfully enough to save them for the next election. The runoff will, as things stand now, be between Le Pen and Fillon, and Fillon would be the odds-on favorite there. Fillon stands to take a lot of the protest-vote wind out of Le Pen's sails. With any luck, this will carry over through the presidential run-off. It had better, because Metternich's observation of two centuries ago still holds: when France sneezes, the rest of Europe catches cold.

Nederland is more muddy, having started earlier than France on a reversal of their policy of universal "tolerance" of immigrants who commit violent crime, which was the big nourishment of the Wilders fungus. But Nederland's politics are more fragmented, with a lot of tiny parties claiming disproportionate power by threatening to leave fragile coalitions that can't hold a majority without them. And either way, with its small population and enclosure by Germany (so far stable) and Belgium (a basket case of pervasive corruption and discord since long before now), Nederland is more of an example than a guiding force. For its tiny size, the country is still really the coalition of small entities it was 3 centuries ago. Limburg has different customs and needs from Gelderland, which has different customs and needs from Zeeland, which has different customs and needs from Friesland, etc etc etc. The man from my office in Gelderland is originally from the far north, near Groningen, and speaks Drents as his native language. He refuses to teach it to me for fear it will corrupt my Dutch.

If the AfD gains 30% or more in any of the larger states in Germany, then it's panic time. Not before.

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