Liberals arguing that the U.S. should give weapons to Syrian rebels underestimate Assad's power

[shaayecanaan]

10. Sorry, missed this conversation

missed this forum, in fact.

I dare say probably the majority of Alawis (about 5 million) in Syria will flee if the regime falls. That is a pretty big wave of refugees. Some of them will try to go to Turkey, some to Iran, probably a fair chunk in Lebanon, none of which either like or want Alawis all that much. Of course, quite a few will be killed.

A part of me says, fuck them, they are the rank and file of the worst regime in the middle east and have rained shit on the Sunnis for years. Its probably only fair that they get a bit in return. But that is only a part of me.

Iraq is not a particularly sectarian or complex society compared to Syria. If Syria goes all out it will make Iraq look like a walk in the park. It will effectively be the Congo of the middle East.