Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Bernie would become a national hero today [View all]Jarqui
(10,516 posts)Recent polls
March 17 primaries All States Bernie lost to Hillary
AZ Biden +28
AZ Biden +17
IL Biden +21
IL Biden +38
FL Biden +38
FL Biden +41
FL Biden +44
FL Biden +55
OH Biden +22
March 24 primaries State Bernie lost to Hillary
GA Biden +18.5 (two polls)
At this point, Bernie's going to be down about 2.5 million votes and 300-400 delegates
After March 24 primaries (latest polls)
PA Biden +28 State Bernie lost to Hillary
DE Biden +38 State Bernie lost to Hillary
WI Biden +16 State Bernie won over Hillary
KS Biden +24 State Bernie won over Hillary
MD Biden heavily favored because of large black vote, Bernie lost MD in 2016
LA Biden heavily favored because of large black vote, Bernie lost LA in 2016
Beyond this, there are not large (over 100 delegates) states outstanding that Bernie won in 2016. His biggest win for the remaining states was 44-39 in Indiana (5 delegates net) or by delegates won Alaska 13-3 (+10 delegates). There's not enough realistic real estate left for Bernie to come back.
National Biden +19 (poll of polls)
I'll let Nate take it from here:
Link to tweet
This is past the point of stick a fork in him. It's time to remove the fork and move on.
Bernie wants to earn negotiation points with Biden. Here's the negotiation:
"It's Biden or Trump. Take your pick."
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden