Democratic Primaries

TheRickles

(2,496 posts)

10. Not Bernie math, but statistics

Sun Mar 15, 2020, 10:07 AM

Mar 2020

Since a relatively small number of people were polled here, the margin of error is fairly high - 3.27%, according to the link. In other words, any scores that are not more than 3% apart cannot be considered to be significantly different - they might be due to random fluctuations within a small sample size. Same as flipping a coin - two heads in a row isn't significant, but ten in a row would be.

Bernie got 49% vs Trump while Biden got 52% vs Trump - that's only a 3% differential between their scores, and is not a statistically significant difference. If they had interviewed 10,000 people and gotten those same results, then it'd be something to headline. But these results are only suggestive, not conclusive.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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****Breaking WSJ-NBC NAT'L POLL**** Biden 52% Trump 43% Biden 61% Sanders 32% [View all] DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2020 OP

Heading in the right direction - more positive now than 2019 denem Mar 2020 #1

And the Sanders/Trump matchup was.... TheRickles Mar 2020 #2

How is Biden 52% trump 43% the same as sanders 49% trump 45%? Thekaspervote Mar 2020 #4

Bernie math!!!!!! comradebillyboy Mar 2020 #8

Not Bernie math, but statistics TheRickles Mar 2020 #10

Wishful thinking...and that is before the GOP ammo hit Sanders. Demsrule86 Mar 2020 #11

Wow!! Not that's some spin Thekaspervote Mar 2020 #14

This message was self-deleted by its author Traym Mar 2020 #16

Your point? Thekaspervote Mar 2020 #17

sorry. I meant to reply to the Pro-Sanders guy Traym Mar 2020 #18

Takes a while to get your feet here! I am tooo embarrassed to even to begin to cite my misteps ... marble falls Mar 2020 #20

That's not how it works. cos dem Mar 2020 #26

Are You Kidding me? Biden's Lead Over Trump is Outside the Margin of Error But Bernie's Is Not Indykatie Mar 2020 #28

With Bernie math, Bernie is actually in the lead! He has the "American people" behind him, as he Doodley Mar 2020 #29

Is 61%-32% within the margin of error? DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2020 #9

Yes TheRickles Mar 2020 #13

No! You're using the 3.27% MOE only with sanders number. MOE works both ways Thekaspervote Mar 2020 #15

Really tho????? Kahuna7 Mar 2020 #12

Nate Silver doesn't like your "statistical tie" gimmick Traym Mar 2020 #19

Excellent DarthDem Mar 2020 #3

Good news on both accounts! honest.abe Mar 2020 #5

once Biden is THE nominee, won;t be surprise to see his numbers hit 57-59% support beachbumbob Mar 2020 #6

This is why Trump pushed Ukraine to make up stuff about Biden. :) nt Sloumeau Mar 2020 #7

Looks Like a Horserace to Me Stallion Mar 2020 #21

It's news Trump and Sanders won't accept. n/t Julian English Mar 2020 #22

K&R Tarheel_Dem Mar 2020 #23

Biden lead will grow SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #24

****WHAT ABOUT SWING STATE POLLS !!?!!??!?***** National polls don't mean much uponit7771 Mar 2020 #25

The national poll doesn't matter folks. We need this margin... SKKY Mar 2020 #27