If Biden needs about 900 delegates to reach the magic number

[Historic NY]

4. Sanders will not win NY or NJ

it is not realistic for Mr. Sanders to overtake Mr. Biden without a titanic shift in the race on a scale with few or no modern precedents. The results on Tuesday confirmed yet again that Mr. Biden holds a commanding national advantage, probably of at least 25 percentage points nationwide, spanning virtually all major demographic groups and regions of the country. He won nearly every county across Illinois, Arizona and Florida, three states that collectively represent just about every facet of American life.

When all of the votes to this point are counted, Mr. Biden will probably hold a lead of around 54 percent to 39 percent in pledged delegates, with nearly 60 percent of the nation’s delegates now in the books. To overtake Mr. Biden, Mr. Sanders would need to win the remaining delegates by around 20 percentage points. It would require a net 40-point improvement over his current standing.

The breadth of Mr. Biden’s advantage denies Mr. Sanders any realistic opportunity for a comeback. Perhaps Mr. Sanders will win a party-run primary or caucus — in Alaska, Hawaii or Wyoming over coming weeks — as he did in North Dakota last week. Otherwise Mr. Biden is the favorite in every remaining primary state. And without victories, Mr. Sanders will be deprived of opportunities to claim the momentum and favorable news coverage to change the trajectory of the race.

If news media organizations projected the outcome of the national nominating contests in the same way they called national elections on election nights, Mr. Biden would be the projected winner of the Democratic nomination on this basis.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/upshot/bernie-sanders-delegates-analysis.html]


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-rest-of-the-primary-calendar-looks-for-biden-and-sanders/]