Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Are Biden's falling polling numbers due to the Pandemic? [View all]Aquaria
(1,076 posts)Which have zilch to do with the primaries to come. Over half of the country has had their say at the only poll that matters--the ballot box. Now all that remains is what's happening in the upcoming states.
How are the upcoming states polling? It doesn't matter what the rest of the country thinks, because they've made their viewpoint clear, already, at the ultimate poll: The ballot box. Show why we should care about national polling, when it doesn't matter a hill of beans.
BS has yet to win a primary in a red state. Do you have any evidence of that changing?
Biden is a native son to Pennsylvania, and the former Senator of Delaware. Do you have any evidence that he is behind in either of those states?
Do you have any evidence that heavily Catholic Rhode Island won't vote for Catholic Biden?
Do you have any evidence that Maryland and the District of Columbia will vote any differently than Virginia did, when all three are remarkably similar to each other in demographics?
Do you have any evidence that someone who couldn't win in MA or WA would do so in CT, NJ or NY--states that are all remarkably similar to MA and WA for voting?
Do you seriously think that BS can get the nomination with the caucus in WY, and maybe--MAYBE--victories in HI, NM, OR and the remaining territories of PR, Guam and the Virgin Islands? Those are the best hopes BS has for eking out some state/territory wins, and none of them break 61 delegates to grab. And, worse, Biden has been polling ahead in HI, NM and OR.
BS must win big in the remaining states and territories, but where in them is his path to victory, especially when (not if) he loses DE, PA, RI and the red states? That bloc of states has 868 delegates. Even if BS got 41% of those votes and all of the delegates were granted by the vote (unlikely), that would only be 356 delegates, compared to Biden getting 512. Add that to the 1215 delegates Biden has as of now, and that would put Biden up 1727 to BS's 1365. Biden would need only 264 of the remaining delegates at that point. Even if BS won the 788 delegates of CT, DC, HI, MD, NJ, NM, OR, PR, GU and VI by 65% to 35% over Biden, Biden would still get the nomination on the first ballot--no need to deal with the superdelegates at all.
There is no path for BS to win. You can cite national polls all day, but none of them will change that fact.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden