Democratic Primaries

TwilightZone

(28,834 posts)

11. Trump transcends their identity with the GOP.

Wed Mar 25, 2020, 12:17 PM

Mar 2020

The main reason I think he won't be dumped en masse by the masses in the red states is because they're not members of the GOP as much members of the Trump cult. I'm not sure anything, including a significant number of deaths, can get through the cult wall. I think they'll just buy his crap that everything is the fault of Democrats.

I could certainly be wrong, but I'd be shocked if his approval drops below 35% and probably more like 37%. That's enough to still win a bunch of red states, though not enough for anything beyond that.

Bush dropped into the 20s because of the financial crisis, but his following was party-affiliated and not a cult. I think Trump's fans are so entrenched in all-things-Trump that we won't see that kind of drop. I hope I'm wrong.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Rachel Bitecofer electoral college evaluation: Biden 289-Trump 181! [View all] Hortensis Mar 2020 OP

It better be way more than 289. drray23 Mar 2020 #1

That's with 68 still in the toss-up category. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #3

Depending on the body count come November, I think Trump could lose all 50 states nt Fiendish Thingy Mar 2020 #4

Not happening. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #5

I agree! MyOwnPeace Mar 2020 #8

And three are even higher Polybius Mar 2020 #22

Gallup is right-leaning, open-ended shit poll, YouGov is an online poll. LenaBaby61 Mar 2020 #31

Maybe I was just being too pessimistic Polybius Mar 2020 #34

This wish is why I pasted the bits I did about Republicans. Hortensis Mar 2020 #10

Trump transcends their identity with the GOP. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #11

She seems so agree. Except that the pathology is the extreme Hortensis Mar 2020 #13

That's an interesting thought. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #14

Never in a million years Polybius Mar 2020 #18

America is ready for an adult in the WH. IluvPitties Mar 2020 #2

Not only READY...... MyOwnPeace Mar 2020 #9

Full Speed Ahead! nt. BlueIdaho Mar 2020 #6

Does this take into account Trump soaring COVID approval? Dopers_Greed Mar 2020 #7

Oh, yes. She has real doubts that the kind of erosion Hortensis Mar 2020 #12

Where are you reading that? Thekaspervote Mar 2020 #15

Look at any recent polling Dopers_Greed Mar 2020 #16

Also, a link Dopers_Greed Mar 2020 #17

Gallup is utterly discredited DarthDem Mar 2020 #19

Why are you rockfordfile Mar 2020 #49

Who is Rachel B.? DarthDem Mar 2020 #20

She's an elections forecaster, but a bit of an outlier, Hortensis Mar 2020 #24

Thanks! What makes her an outlier? DarthDem Mar 2020 #33

:) Didn't come in the usual path. Methodology. Results. Hortensis Mar 2020 #35

Thanks DarthDem Mar 2020 #36

So, Turin_C3PO Mar 2020 #21

Just out of curiosity, what did she predict in 2016? n/t totodeinhere Mar 2020 #23

She was new and didn't do a forecast. But it was a huge Hortensis Mar 2020 #25

Thanks. n/t totodeinhere Mar 2020 #27

Ohio cancels in person primary Aerator Mar 2020 #26

Not sure what's going up faster BidenBacker Mar 2020 #28

:) Not sure there'd be an "or." It would be very risky to Hortensis Mar 2020 #29

I'm almost positive Turin_C3PO Mar 2020 #30

I was just being a little sarcastic in that last post and agree BidenBacker Mar 2020 #32

Yes, but factor in that COVID will be killing in November. Hortensis Mar 2020 #37

We're going to have to get incredibly lucky in two respects Awsi Dooger Mar 2020 #40

It would help Turin_C3PO Mar 2020 #42

I don't blame the media BidenBacker Mar 2020 #43

What you're saying is no doubt true, Turin_C3PO Mar 2020 #44

Vent away, buddy! BidenBacker Mar 2020 #45

wtf are you talking about? rockfordfile Mar 2020 #50

I had just seen BidenBacker Mar 2020 #41

Most likely rockfordfile Mar 2020 #51

It's not rockfordfile Mar 2020 #47

Rachel Bitecofer has no clue regarding situational influence Awsi Dooger Mar 2020 #38

Trump will lose a lot of States rockfordfile Mar 2020 #48

Holy cow!!! Peacetrain Mar 2020 #39

Biden's numbers have been constant. radius777 Mar 2020 #46