Historian who correctly predicted last 9 presidential elections: Trump is more likely to lose

[BidenBacker]

3. Interesting read

Lichtman had me right up until the end about it not mattering who the opponent is but we'll let that slide.

Not sure we can use history to predict what will happen in November. I've seen some folks here whip out some fancy analysis about how 2020 is just like this or that previous election and then use that to predict a Trump reelection. Joe himself called Trump an "aberration" (correctly, IMO)...and you can't use historical trends in those cases to predict future results because...well, "aberrations" don't fit into past patterns by definition.

Anyway, sure hope Trump doesn't see this article and figure out he's got 6 keys against him and this Lichtman guy therefore says he's gonna lose. The highly stable genius will probably figure "hey, I know...I'll flip Key 11 back in my favor and start a war with Mexico and kick their rapist butts. We got millions of Americans just sitting around doing nothing anyway...we can put them to work earning that 1200 bucks I'm giving them and invade Acapulco. Hey, if I send only the ones who have coronavirus the US case numbers will go down so it'll be a two-fer."