More Americans trust Joe to handle COVID-19 crisis.

[BidenBacker]

11. My gut says

there will be a few different factors that play a role in the election result. Just like in plane crashes there are almost always numerous factors that lead up to one, some major and some minor. It's almost never just one single factor that determined the fatal accident. These are only a few...

#1 - Democratic turnout will be higher than Republican turnout
#2 - Dems will vote for Biden in higher percentages than Pubs vote for Trump
#3 - Indies will swing in favor of Biden

Thinking #1 will have a small to intermediate impact. So far many of the Dem primaries have shown a sizeable increase in turnout compared to 2016...not for Bernie but for the entire field as a whole. #2 will likely be a small effect...surveys and studies I've looked over typically show 90-95% of Dems will vote for Biden compared to Republicans voting for their beloved Fuhrer at rates in only the high 80s. These first 2 factors will likely not be overwhelming but those two alone may help Democrats overcome any numerical disadvantage they have in some purple swing states like here in Arizona, and every little bit only helps. Forget the "enthusiasm" nonsense...hate is often a far better motivator than love.

Think we both agree that #3 is probably the potentially biggest and most crucial factor of all. Since Independents make up roughly 40% of the entire national electorate small swings in that group can make the difference between losing a close election or winning in a relative electoral landslide...something akin to what Obama did in 2008 (365-173) vs McCain and to a lesser degree in 2012 (332-206) vs Romney.

Lots of unknowns going forward but my hunch is the economy will be in terrible shape throughout the summer and into the autumn with more multi-trillion dollar bailouts required to keep it from collapsing. We are in all likelihood already in a recession and are just waiting for the economists to catch up and confirm. IMO we are a lot closer to another depression than many folks believe or are willing to contemplate. And God only knows where we will be with this damn virus that Trump called a hoax for 2 months rather than get the country better prepared to do battle with.

Methinks your "smart money" buddies in Vegas are gonna lose their bets. Play around with this a little and lemme know what you come up with...

https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/road-to-270-2020/

Now if you will excuse me I gotta don my HAZMAT suit and go do a little food shopping this morning!