Analyzing the Trump cult voting patterns [View all]
I firmly believe that a large portion, about a third of Trump voters, act like a cult They vote for Trump and only Trump. I have spoken to some of these voters. They used to never vote at all, or if they did, it was infrequently at best.
Let me state some facts and then tell you how I interpret them. Let's take this most recent Presidential election. Trump won every swing state and the popular vote. Yet, in every swing state, the Democrat ran ahead of Harris and in 4 of the 5 statewide contests, the Democrat won outright. Wisconsin (Senate), Arizona (Senate), North Carolina (Governor) and Michigan (Governor). Only in Pennsylvania did the Democrat lose statewide (Senate) by just a quarter point, and he outpolled Harris by tens of thousands of votes. And even though Trump won the popular vote, the Republicans still lost a seat in the House overall. Those are the facts.
Here is my interpretation. Because such a large part of the Trump vote is a cult, his voters vote for him and no one else. They blank down ballot. I have spoken to some of these voters. They love Trump because they don't consider him a politician. When it comes to mid-terms and special elections, Democrats do much better, because Trump is not on the ballot. and the ballot consists of "only politicians", so why bother?
I've looked at this in many different ways and I can't come to any other conclusion than what I have written here. If my theory is correct, we should do quite well on Tuesday in Wisconsin and even Florida. We may not win outright in the 2 Florida specials, but I think we will overperform. In Wisconsin, we will win by 8 points, if my theory is correct.
Fingers crossed.