They called the two Florida races

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29. Actually, turnout was way down for both Democrats and Republicans in the two Florida races

It was entirely expected that there would be a significant drop in turn out for these special elections compared to the 2024 election, but the drop off was much greater for repubs -- enough to reduce the margin of victory from around 30% to around 14%, but nowhere near enough to flip either seat.

More specifically, in the First District, the Repub candidate, Patronis, got 69% fewer votes than Matt Gaetz got in 2024, while the Democratic candidate, Gay Valimont, got only 49 percent fewer votes than she got in 2024.

Similarly, in the Sixth District, the Repub candidate, Randy Fine, got 61% fewer votes than Michael Waltz got in 2024, while the Democratic candidate, Josh Weil, got only 41 percent fewer votes than the Democratic candidate got in 2024.

The result was that instead of losing by 33% (first district) or 28% (sixth district), the two Democrats closed the margin to 14% - still a comfortable win for the repubs, but a big drop off for solidly red districts that could bode well for swing districts in 2026 if the pattern continues..