Peter Kellner, top pollster:
If Corbyn backs Brexit, he faces electoral catastrophe
have seldom seen a poll on a subject dividing the nation for which the lessons are so clear. The biggest survey yet conducted on Brexit shows that Remain would comfortably win a referendum held today and that Labour would crash to a landslide election defeat if it helped Brexit go ahead.
YouGov questioned more than 25,000 people between 21 December and last Friday. It tested two referendum scenarios. If the choice is Remain versus the governments withdrawal agreement, Remain leads by 26 points: 63% to 37%. If the choice is Remain versus leaving the EU without a deal, Remain wins by 16 points: 58% to 42%.
The difference is explained by the views of those who voted Leave in 2016. Many of them want a clean break with Brussels, but back away from an agreement that fails to redeem the promise in 2016 to take back control. Among all voters, only 22% support the governments deal. Among Leave voters the figure is not much higher: 28%.
The larger point is that the nature of the choice has changed since 2016 52% voted Leave when it was a general aspiration with little apparent downside. Today support for Brexit is significantly lower when Leave is more clearly defined.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/brexit-corbyn-electoral-catastrophe-yougov-poll
https://www.peoples-vote.uk/biggest_poll_yet_shows_labour_will_be_punished_at_the_ballot_box_if_it_helps_brexit_happen